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The iTunes Growth Arc: What’s Really Happening?

So, the iTunes Store has now sold 8 billion songs since mid-2003, a break in the plateau logjams of 2007 and 2008.  In fact, the past 6-7 months have witnessed a doubling in volumes, from roughly 2 billion annualized to a projected 4 billion-plus in 2009.

Why the jump?  During a recent financial overview, Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer pointed to over-the-air download capabilities as the motivator, though a number of other factors may also be in play.  That includes a residual effect from App Store craziness, as well as an expanded worldwide rollout of television and movie content.  On the music side,  the international map remained mostly unchanged in 2009, though a bigger push into Latin America is expected later this year.

On the content side, Michael Jackson undoubtedly offered a bump.  Immediately after his death, the iTunes Store charts were clogged with Jackson songs and albums, and fans are still buying weeks later.

Incidentally, some major label executives in contact with Digital Music News have questioned the Oppenheimer figure.  Instead, these sources point to a rather flat sales trajectory, using immediate sales reports from Apple itself.  On that note, Apple representative Jason Roth confirmed the Oppenheimer comments as completely accurate, and not a reference to a conglomerate of various audio and video downloads.  “8 billion songs is correct, this does not refer to video content,” Roth told Digital Music News from London.

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