Opinions Wall Street

Resnikoff’s Parting Shot: The Return of Liquidity…

The data on venture capital financing remains abysmal, and plenty of indicators suggest tough times ahead.  According to the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA), just 25 funds raised $1.7 billion in the US during the second quarter.  That is the lowest funding aggregate since 2003, and by stark comparison, 2007 produced over $36 billion in dry powder.

Sounds like a seriously frozen pipe, and more cause for bootstrapping.  Then why are a string of music startups – traditionally a high-risk group – suddenly securing sizable funds?  Look no further than MOG, which is now getting ready to officially announce a $5 million round from Menlo Ventures.

Think this is just funny money?  Not according to players like MOG chief executive David Hyman, or Menlo financiers like Sonja Hoel Perkins.  Suddenly, big-name Menlo is ready to jump into the dicey music game, a punishing path for so many VCs.  Funny or not – does that sound like illiquidity?

Others are also grabbing noticeable rounds.  Just this week, Rightsflow secured a $1.5 million purse, and Audible Magic (albeit less directly tied to music) wrestled down $1.28 million.

Just small-time bets?  Not at Spotify, which just rallied $50 million (30 million pounds) at a broader valuation north of $240 million (148 million pounds).  Perhaps Spotify hits the jackpot at the hands of Facebook, and everyone gets rich.

Plan B?  Spotify lacks a real revenue model, and its monetization plan is mostly theoretical at this point.  Meanwhile, the last Facebook favorite – iLike – was sold for relative scrap to MySpace.

Tricky terrain, and most will lose cash on these bets – just like before.  And that is the whole point.  Suddenly, money that was once paralyzed on the sidelines is jumping into a high-stakes game.  Investors are getting lured by music again, partly because of the thrill of cracking an impossible riddle.  Sounds like an earlier era, one that featured a much richer pipeline than today.

Perhaps the biggest example is playing out in Stockholm right now.  Hans Pandeya and Global Gaming Factory appear ready to toss nearly $8 million at a long-shot Pirate Bay legitimization plan.  Among venture capitalists, that sort of ambition is reminiscent of ‘frothy’ climes, a word rarely uttered in 2009.

Paul Resnikoff, Publisher.

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